This is all from Michael A. Alcorn, from my email, no further indentation offered:
“Just to keep hammering on this nursing home point… I saw your Tweet about Eastern vs. Western Europe and decided to explore the nursing home angle there too. The WHO has data on the number of nursing and elderly home beds for different countries here. Unfortunately, the data only goes up to 2013-ish for many countries, but it’s suggestive nonetheless.
Italy and France were clearly trending up seven years ago in its number of beds… would be interesting to see if Italy had a similar jump to Spain at some point. The number of beds gives us a proxy for the number of people who are highly vulnerable to COVID-19. Obviously, these countries have different total populations, but I don’t think that should matter too much because I suspect nursing homes tend to be highly concentrated within countries (e.g., how many of France’s nursing homes are in the Paris metro?). Based on what I’ve read about nursing home staff often being low paid and so perhaps coming to work when sick and working at multiple facilities, I suspect nursing home density is nonlinearly related to the number of COVID-19 deaths in a country (especially when you account for some of the truly horrifying government decisions regarding nursing homes).
Here are those Nordic countries everyone likes to compare:
You can get exact numbers on the website, but Sweden had twice as many nursing home beds as Finland and three times as many as Norway. The ship might have sailed on what we can do to protect these vulnerable populations, but I would love to see a Fast Grant go towards investigating the COVID-19/nursing home tragedy.”