Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.
Making a mask’s ability to protect others all the more salient.
Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France Science. From the abstract: “France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020…. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected. at the end of the lockdown.”
There has been a steep rise in coronavirus cases reported in Orange County following the large crowds on the beaches on April 25-26.
In the week of April 20-26, there were 438 cases in Orange County. The week after that, 669 cases were reported, and the week after that, 759 cases. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the beaches were a source of spread for an outbreak or if the increase could be explained simply by other factors, such as increased testing.
“But you know, just us looking at it, there was a big jump in Orange County that was temporally consistent with possible transmission from that crowd event,” [Dr. George Rutherford, a former epidemic intelligence service officer with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] said.
Doubtful that there’s transmission splashing along the waterline or in the water. But there are gatherings around beach blankets where items like drinks and towels are shared, as well as lines at food carts, lines at parking lots, tailgating, afterparties, and, of course, demonstrators. No doubt much depends on the actual physical configuration of the beach. But doesn’t the precautionary principle apply here?
Coronavirus May Never Go Away: WHO Barron’s. “‘This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away,’ [Michael Ryan, the WHO’s emergencies director] told a virtual press conference in Geneva. ‘HIV has not gone away — but we have come to terms with the virus.’”
How to Manage a Chinese Factory China Law Blog. “A bad economy directly translates to factory problems. Conversely, it also translates to buying opportunities as Chinese factories all of a sudden become willing to negotiate a lot more on prices and payment terms.”
These Young Socialists Think They Have Courage. They Don’t. Mitchell Abidor, NYT. “Taking a principled stand is courageous only when those taking it put themselves at risk. Placing others at risk requires no courage at all.” How true, and how true it is that liberal Democrats are moral exemplars, fully entitled to shame others.
Coronavirus will win. America needs to make a plan for failure. The Week. We bought time with the lockdowns, and squandered it. My personal view: Not to over-react, but in my view everybody who’s considering emigrating — internally or internationally — should accelerate preparations, in case the quarantine walls within and around the United States get too high too fast.