Which NBA teams will gain in relative prospects from the shutdown?
The Los Angeles Lakers, far and away.
The most valuable stars, such as LBJ, have their own private gyms and work-out rooms, often in their homes. They have stayed in the best shape, and of course LBJ has the discipline too. Those star players also are the most used to unusual circumstances (All-star games, Olympics, etc.) and being accustomed to higher than average levels of pressure. They rely less on crowd support than do the role players, noting it is the latter who benefit much more from home court advantage. If the games are played in Las Vegas and Orlando, and without crowds, no one will have home court advantage (except the Orlando Magic, sort of).
So teams built around star veterans will have higher chances of doing better in the playoffs.
The interrupted and probably shortened season also will be easier on the older players, which again covers LeBron. Anthony Davis is not so old but the Lakers would love to play him as many minutes as possible.
The teams with “many necessary complementary parts” will fare worst in relative terms. With such a long break, surely at least 10-20% of those players have “gone off the reservation,” so to speak, and will not return to quality form for some time. Those teams will not gel so easily and find their groove.
Who might that be? I know the Clippers have two big stars, but they seem to rely a lot on the team as a whole. Who else? The Celtics maybe? Indiana?
What are the implications of this analysis for management and business firms? Will teams built around a superstar have an advantage there too?