Cost Benefit Analysis of Limited Reopening Relative to a Herd Immunity Strategy or Shelter in Place for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States medRvix. From the abstract: “A limited reopening to achieve partial mitigation of COVID-19 is cost effective relative to a full reopening if an effective therapeutic or vaccine can be deployed within 11.1 months of late May 2020. One additional month of shelter-in-place restrictions should only be imposed if it saves at least 154,586 lives per month before the development of an effective therapeutic or vaccine relative to limited reopening.” Taleb would argue that since the downside of betting on herd immunity is ruin, we should not make it; more, we should not be applying so-called cost-benefit analysis in the first place. I agree with Taleb. Note the spurious precision of “11.1 months.”
Looks almost identical to the South Korea fitness class one (pictured left) in terms of transmission route (new one from China on right) – both figures from CDC. 112 cases and 71+ cases respectively. pic.twitter.com/AXw9F96u3v
Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’ Nature. From the abstract: “Notably, 42.5% (95% CI 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (i.e. did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards). The mean serial interval was 7.2 days (95% CI 5.9-9.6). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections.”
Thousands of test and trace callers failed to find a SINGLE contact of a coronavirus patient, investigation reveals Daily Mail. “[Serco’s] 25,000 call handlers only traced 15,812 people to tell them to isolate, while 98,000 were traced by 870 Public Health England officials.”
America’s Enduring Caste System New York Times. “Caste is the infrastructure of our divisions.” Anything, anything but class (which, having been thrown out the front door, sneaks in through the back window as soon as you take the author’s category error-hobbled “America is like a house” trope seriously).