/Tracking Covid Vaccinations (& Return to Economic Normalcy)

Tracking Covid Vaccinations (& Return to Economic Normalcy)

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Source: Bloomberg



So far, more than 5.1 million doses in 22 countries have been administered, including 2.32 million doses in the USA.

We know that courtesy of a state-by-state tally that the infographic team at Bloomberg is doing. It is live, and auto-updates — just wait a few minutes, refresh and the numbers change automagically.

The initial roll out seems slow, but to be fair, the data is going to be reported on a lag in the best of circumstances. Given Christmas/New Year’s holidays, it is going to be even worse this week and next.

Yes, there has been a decided lack of leadership in managing this; but we should expect to see this ramp up over the next few weeks or so regardless. And when the new crew comes in — competent government-believing, science-loving, technocrat types — we can hope for an even more aggressive roll out.


In the meantime, I want to make three guesses:

1. When will I be vaccinated?

2. When will the USA achieve ~70% vaccination rate (needed for herd immunity)?

3. When will the economy return to normal based on GDP and Employment?

My guesses are as follows:

1. My cohort — under 60, no co-morbidities or respiratory issues — will get vaccine between April and May;

2. By July 4th we should be at (or at least very close to) herd immunity

3. GDP at 2% in Q3, 4-5% by Q4 2021; Employment bv Q2 2022

Maybe thats too optimistic, but I hope it is accurate.



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